UN warns of temperature rise almost worldwide due to El Niño
The probability of the onset of the weather phenomenon El Niño, which contributes to an increase in air temperature, in the period from June to August 2026 is 80%.
This is stated in a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) with a forecast of air temperatures.
The report notes that El Niño conditions are forming under the influence of unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It emphasizes that in the coming months this could increase the risk of extreme weather events and affect global temperature regimes and precipitation patterns.
The document states that the probability of El Niño occurring in June-August is 80%. "The probability that it will last at least until November is close to or exceeds 90%. Although some uncertainty remains regarding the peak intensity and timing of El Niño, most forecast models indicate that it will be at least moderate, and possibly strong," the report notes.
The WMO reported that from late April to mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific approached El Niño threshold values. At the same time, growing surface anomalies are fueled by unusually warm subsurface conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The report indicates that temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are 6 degrees above the average level. This, it notes, creates a significant heat reserve that contributes to the observed surface warming.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres, whose words are quoted in the report, stated that El Niño will approach with 90% probability in the coming months. "The world must take this as an urgent climate warning. El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of planetary warming. The consequences will be even more serious, spread even further, and at a destructive speed cross borders," he said.
Guterres stressed that the only effective response to this situation is fair climate action. According to him, this includes ending dependence on fossil fuels, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, protecting the most vulnerable populations, and ensuring early warning systems for all.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo also stated the need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño weather phenomenon.
"El Niño will intensify droughts and heavy precipitation, as well as increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean. The last El Niño in 2023–2024 was one of the five strongest on record and played a role in the record global temperatures we observed in 2024," Saulo noted.
The weather phenomenon El Niño, occurring in the Pacific Ocean, leads to a rise in temperature primarily in regions with access to the oceans, and then worldwide.
La Niña, which can be characterized as the opposite phenomenon, means colder weather conditions for the planet.
During the transition between these two phenomena, neutral, that is, natural, weather conditions are observed.
Source: Anadolu
